Greek Scientists Agree To Disagree - New Quake Expected Below 5 Magnitude Or Above?

The following is a follow-up to our early morning coverage of the double impact earthquake that rocked Evia and the area of Athens early on Tuesday morning. Read full story HERE before proceeding with this report.

Athens A new earthquake below 5 on the Richter scale cannot be ruled out, professor of Dynamic Tectonic Applied Geology of the Kapodistrian University of Athens and President of Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization Efthimios Lekkas told the state run news agency ANA-MPA on Tuesday.

     "A quake of the same magnitude is probable, but what I believe more probable is a quake of 4.7-4.8 on the Richter scale from the same area of the double quake. It will also be very positive if we have a series of aftershocks so that the seismic procedure fades out," Lekkas estimated.

Lekkas noted that the double quake was triggered by the activation of small, nearby to Atalanti fault, rifts which do not have the "power to give quakes of high magnitude. Conclusively what we expect is light quakes that may reach 5.2 to 5.3 on the Richter scale. It is very positive the fact that the seismic energy is de-escalating by a string of aftershocks."

He underlined that Greece should not expect to experience a strong earthquake from the Atalanti fault for the next seven to nine centuries.

     "The Atalanti fault gave a strong shock 110 years ago in 1894. The fault fills with energy every 700-900 years, therefore we have lots of time ahead of us until the Atalanti fault activates again," he said.

On the other hand, the director of the Geodynamics Institute, Akis Tselentis, did not rule out the possibility of a stronger quake from the area of the Evian Gulf.

     "People should be cautious, because the area that gave the double 5.1 Richter quake early Tuesday is very big and of high seismic activity," he said.

Tselentis, however, clarified that the quake's epicentre is not related to the Atalanti fault but, it is very close to it. He also estimated that quakes as those recorded early on Tuesday morning cannot activate the Atalanti fault.

The reseach director of the Greek Geodynamics Institute George Drakatos shares the same opinion, and estimates that the epicentre of the 5.1 Richter double quake that occurred on Tuesday morning -as well as all the after shocks- are not on Atalanti fault but located further south.

     "We have no indication of an imminent strong tremor from the Evian Gulf seismic zone," said emeritus professor of Seismology Vassilios Papazahos.
     "The whole country is an earthquake-prone area and for this reason we must learn to live with the quakes," he said adding "we, seismologists, make only estimations".

In contrast, Papazahos' son, professor of seismology Costas Papazahos, agreed with Tselentis' line saying that he does not rule out the possibility the 5.1 quake not to be the main shock and that we should be cautious over the next days.

(The moral of the story? Once again, Greeks agree to disagree...)