The areas include: Larissa, Magnesia, Serres, Corinth, Messinia, B' Thessaloniki, A' Thessaloniki, Evia, Achaia, A' Athens, B'Athens, A' Piraeus, B' Piraeus, the wider region of Attica, Aetoloacarnania, Ilia and Fthiotida. Basically this amounts to almost 75% of the country.
If we take the current public opinion polls into consideration (which may or may not be a true image of what the people want) then we can assume that it will be very difficult for Golden Dawn to win back those seats if it by-elections took place. But then again we do not know if these public opinion polls are credible, and most importantly we do not know how the general public will vote because they could transform into a rallying point for anti-bailout forces and disgruntled voters that may or may not support the far-right party.
In any case, the seats will go to the party that gathers the most votes in each constituency, rather than be dependant on the national share of the vote for each group. Basically this means that the conservative New Democracy and/or even the main opposition extreme left party SYRIZA would likely take these seats.
At the moment the conservatives hold 127 MPs in Parliament and SYRIZA holds 72. This includes the 50 bonus seats that the conservatives received for gathering the most votes at the 2012 national elections. If these seats are taken away, then SYRIZA will come out with more seats in Parliament. The coalition government would be axed to pieces and with an extreme left government in power there is no clue as to what could happen next on our national issues, economy, and issues that deal with energy.
In fact SYRIZA is the only party that has been jumping with joy with this announcement. So much so that its parliamentary spokesman (D.Papadimoulis) stated that if the Golden Dawn party MPs resign then SYRIZA will use this opportunity to hold a double referendum: One against Nazism (which it stupidly continues to maintain exists in Greece) and the other to end the Memorandums (something that is certainly not going to be received well in Brussels).
Keep in mind that SYRIZA rose to fame only after supporters of George Papandreou abandoned PASOK and parked themselves there. In other words... the SYRIZA you know today, is basically the corrupt PASOK of yesterday!
Obviously the remaining PASOK which is headed by Evangelos (The Large) Venizelos is still corrupt, but they are just more refined than the hardliners who are now at SYRIZA. Speaking about Venizelos, he told Reuters on Wednesday in New York that Golden Dawn would damage itself if it attempted to force elections by walking out of parliament and believe it or not, he also described the move as "a great opportunity" for other parties. The man is desperate to keep PASOK alive in any which way he can and is disillusioned if he thinks that his party could gain from such an event. And this is because PASOK will not gain more than 4% if such elections are held and at best 7%.
What he does not realize, and neither does the rest of the political system, is that the Golden Dawn party does not give a hoot about how many MPs it has in parliament, the only thing it cares about is being politically active!
The conservatives, on the other hand, will be the real losers. They will most likely come in second place and this is because the New Democracy party has stirred up the waters with its long-standing supporters by altering its ideologies and tilting them more towards the progressive side. Most of its supporters are furious with the government of Antonis Samaras for creating a coalition with the force that brought this country to its decline (meaning PASOK) and especially with (Simitis backed) Evangelos Venizelos and often claim that they have a government of Venizelos that is headed by Samaras.
Undoubtedly, the Independent Greek party will also suffer because at the moment they are said to average between 4-5%.
As for DIMAR, it is highly unlikely that this party will get into parliament at all and the only good thing that will come out of this is that Repoussi would probably never get re-elected again.
The only party that is expected to gain from these by-elections is the Greek Communist Party (KKE).
But of course this is our analysis here at HellasFrappe, given the current public opinion polls of course. Nonetheless it is an image that is frightening our foreign creditors. The only forces rubbing their hands with glee at the present moment are all those who want (and have wanted) to destabilize our country.
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