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February 9, 2015

Tsipras Presents Gov't Policy - Lenders Not Convinced - Int'l Press Skeptical

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras presented the main goals of the national salvation government, as he called it, in Parliament on Sunday but there are a few areas in his speech that definitely need ironing out, ahead of the Eurogroup meeting on Wednesday. Meanwhile, international press reports note that the US government is pushing EU leaders to compromise with Greece's new government as fears intensify that a protracted budget stand-off could damage the global economy.

Before we analyze Tsipras' speech, we should note that the head of the Euro Working Group Thomas Wieser and the head of the European Commission's delegation in the EU-IMF troika Declan Costello were already in Athens late on Sunday night to liaise with the finance ministry as well as to assist with the best possible preparation for the emergency Eurogroup meeting on Greece that is to be held in Brussels this Wednesday.

During his parliamentary address, Tsipras said that recovering Greece's sovereignty and addressing the social crisis that are a result of the crisis were the main goals of "the national salvation government”, that placed his party in government with the Independent Greeks party (ANEL) adding that he is fully aware of the difficulties that lie ahead and the responsibility he has assumed.

The Greek premier referred to a vision of a financially independent Greece, stressing that because of the people’s support, a financially independent Greece will be re-constructed.

He argued that his party's only commitment is to serve the people, Greek national interests and promised that his “government will irreversibly uphold and implement its election proclamations”.
     “This commitment is the non-negotiable core of the government’s policy – it is a matter of honor, trust and respect to Democracy,” he noted.
The Greek PM announced measures to cut bureaucratic spending. He announced a series of cuts to politicians' benefits such as banning ministerial cars and selling one of the prime minister's aircraft. PArallel to this he pledged that his government would heal the "wounds" of austerity, sticking to campaign pledges of giving free food and electricity to those who had suffered, and reinstating civil servants who had been fired as part of bailout austerity conditions.

Noting his policy actions, Tsipras also said the government plans to restore the tax-free threshold for individual workers to 12,000 euros a year and gradually raise the minimum wage to 751 euros a month by the end of 2016.

Faced with Greece's economic reality, he said that only a few of the measures announced by his party prior to the elections on January 25th will begin being implemented by the end of June 2015, namely until the end of the “bridging program” which the government is pursuing, and if willing, the remaining pledges will gradually be implemented by the end of the government’s 4-year term.

The Greek Prime Minister said that his government’s ambition is to prove to Greece's partners that it is willing to discuss the implementation of the bridging program, while making it clear that it will not request an extension of the previous program and will not accept any review by the troika, at least not in its present form.

This is one of the grey areas of his speech since it can clearly be interpreted that he will accept some sort of other Troika.

Commenting on his speech, Εuropean Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Monday advised SYRIZA not to assume that the euro zone would simply accept all of the promises that were made to Greek voters about scrapping economic reforms. Juncker told reporters that Tsipras had "only partly addressed" Brussels΄ concerns about his plans in a speech in Athens on Sunday.

Meanwhile, reports state that US President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are in “close contact” regarding the recent developments in Greece. According to statements from White House spokesman Josh Earnest, Obama would meet with Chancellor Merkel on Monday to discuss the situation in Ukraine, while US Vice President Joe Bidden would be visiting Brussels and Munich for a series of meetings with European leaders.

Certainly it appears as though Tsipras attempted to appease European concerns by postponing certain aspects of it, but was he successful?

Tsipras announced that he will fulfill the country’s obligations, by promising balanced budgets and tackling tax evasion and corruption. Nevertheless he was somewhat vague on the national insurance system reforms and the particulars of the balanced budgets. In fact during his speech he appeared more moderate than perhaps expected, however the first responses in Brussels suggest that there is dissatisfaction with Mr. Tsipras’ proclamations. His speech in Parliament was deemed to be more confrontational than amicable, with some bringing to mind the difficulties that Cyprus met in 2013.

With Wednesday’s critical Eurogroup quickly approaching the discussions amongst European officials will increase in order to be fully prepared for talks in Brussels.

While Tsipras pleased his party associates, he did not however impress the international press. In fact, there were numerous reports that flooded the airwaves and they were not all positive.

Reuters: Defiant Greek PM sets up EU clash with bailout rejection, austerity rollback
     "The new PM said he is not willing to seek an extension of the Memorandum, essentially putting himself on a major collision course with the rest of the European leaders on Thursday’s Eurogroup".
Guardian: Tsipras favors Greek jobless over creditors in defiant policy speech
     “The Greek Prime Minister,  Alexis Tsipras, has announced his anti-austerity government programme in a defiant address that prioritised the jobless and destitute over international creditors who have lent the country more than $300bn”, Guardian correspondent Helena Smith said. She added that the measures to be taken by the Greek government are small compared to the big credit obligations of Greece and that some observers believe this will lead Greece out of the Eurozone.
CNN: Greek PM vows to make good on campaign pledges
     The article focuses on the PM’s refusal to request an extension. “Tsipras added that Greece is looking for a bridge deal until June, when a more solid agreement can be reached with European partners”.
France 24: Greece does not want an extension but a bridging program and the Greek PM will reopen ERT

German Media also showed great interest on the Mr Tsipras’. Tsipras says the European rescue plan failed, Spiegel said, while Die Welt seemed more scathing:
     "Once again he promised the impossible".
French L'Express notes that the Greek Prime Minister has assured that he will fulfill all his pre-election commitments.

Tsipras sets his own terms on the negotiations with Europe, Le Monde reports.

Italian La Republica says the Greek PM provokes the EU by saying that he will stick to his election program adding that Mr Tsipras has sent his message to Europe that the country will honor its commitments, will pay its debt, but will do so while talking to the EU and not the troika.

The Portuguese Jornal do Noticias chooses to highlight what the Greek PM said in Parliament about Greece asking Germany for the reparations of the Second World War.

More negative comments began to surface a little after midnight over some of Tsipras' "greayer" areas of his speech. As such, SYRIZA needs to clarify these "grey" zones ahead of Wednesday’s Eurogroup, in order to avoid a full-on collision that nobody desires.

These points are the following:

Insurance: In no case is it enough to simply transfer resources from a “national wealth fund” which it is still uncertain what assets it is going to incorporate (sales from hydrocarbons that have yet to be found, revenue from real estate sales etc) in order to cover the deficits in the insurance system.

Privatizations: It is uncertain what is going to happen, as the revenue generated by the asset development fund TAIPED was expected to be used towards paying off the debt.

Changes to employment relations: The restoration of contract extensions and the system of triennial salary raises is going to burden the economy (both the public and private sector) with additional wage costs and certainly this is something that also raised a few eyebrows and needs to be presented better.

Certainly, Tsipras' broken voice when wrapping up his speech may have moved many of his supporters, as well as showed reflected the pressure from Greece's lenders but the harsh truth is that Greece's creditors are not moved. In fact, neither the invocation of European democratic ideal, nor the so-called humanitarian crisis in Greece (that has highly been promoted by SYRIZA) moved our creditors, who view the new government as hosts of dangerous beliefs and theories. In their view, we have to submit quickly, or within the next few days, or be prepared to face a credit crunch, restrictions on withdrawing money and financial exhaustion.

(Combined reports from: Reuters, AFP, enikos, protothema, AMNA, Yahoo news, Int'l press)