Speckhard: "Greece is much more important than people think"

Editor's Note: HellasFrappe is not convinced about SYRIZA's relationship with Russia; in fact we highly doubt it. We tend to believe that SYRIZA tips to the West and the only force that is Russia-friendly is their coalition partner ANEL. In previous posts we have posted reports on Mr. Speckhard, and featured various Wikileaks cables about him. We have also written about how he was so fixated on the downfall of former premier Costas Karamanlis, but we have also reported that he met with Alexis Tsipras in the US when the Greek premier addressed the Soros-backed Brookings Institute. In fact someone even snapped a picture of their meeting; but this was all ignored by the corrupt Greek media. Luckily, the Diaspora media thought it was interesting. As such, and after reading the article, we suggest that you click on the articles featured below so that you gain a better perspective on what is really at play here. In the end you will agree that Speckhard's recent comments on Greece's geopolitical importance are just words to mix up the salad in what is a geopolitical (oil-pipeline) war of propaganda.

(ANA-MPA/P. Panagiotou) - Former U.S. Ambassador to Greece Daniel Speckhard argued in an interview with Fortune magazine that European finance ministers are missing the forest for the trees when it comes to the Greek debt crisis.

In an article titled "Will debt negotiations force Greece into Russia's orbit?" and published late on Monday, writer Chris Matthews says Speckhard noted that the seeds of Greece's current debt crisis were sown years ago, when "the poorest and least stable economy decided to join the Euro in 2000".

Greek and European leaders hoped that joining the currency would force the country to adopt growth policies that would keep it from needing to devalue its currency just to stay competitive. "But the Greek government never adopted such policies. Instead, they cooked the books to gain admission into the Euro and to hide their high debt levels from other member nations," Speckhard argued.

Once the financial crisis hit, there was no way to sweep the harsh economic realities under the rug.

Greece's bailouts have allowed it to keep its creditors at bay, he said, but they have been a short-term disaster for the nation's economy. Facing depression conditions at home, the Greek electorate turned to a left-wing government in the parliamentary elections in January, which ran on promises to fight against the austerity conditions imposed upon it as conditions for its bailout.

Since then, Eurozone officials, and Germany in particular, have taken a hard line against Greece, refusing to loosen its bailout terms, out of fear that giving into Greece will embolden the left wings of other bailed out nations like Spain and Portugal.

But this logic misses the forest for the trees and might end up costing Germany and the Eurozone a lot more, in terms of hard cash and geopolitical power, according to the former U.S. Ambassador to Greece.

Speckhard, who is now president and CEO of Lutheran World Relief, argued in a recent interview with Fortune that because the debt negotiations are "silo-ed off" from discussions about European and Western unity in the face of global threats like ISIS and an increasingly bellicose Russia, Germany and the West risk letting Greece slip from their sphere of influence. Greece is a critical state for exerting American and Western influence in both the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

     "Greece is much more important than people think," says Speckhard. "The conventional wisdom is now that we can allow a Grexit and just cauterize the wound, but it's not that simple."

Speckhard points to the fact that Greece's current left-wing ruling party, Syriza, already has a close relationship with Russia.

A day after he was elected to the post, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras objected to any further sanctions against Russia surrounding its support of separatists in Ukraine. And in May, Tsipras traveled to Russia, where he criticized the pro-European government which took power in Ukraine last year.

Other top government officials, like foreign minister Nikos Kotzias, have worked to water down the threat of further sanctions against Russia as well. The Greek and Russian people also have cultural ties, including a shared religion, which make cooperation more plausible.

From an economic perspective, the exit of Greece from the euro currency zone might not seem like such a loss, Speckhard said. "But if you think that fighting Russian aggression in Eastern Europe is important to maintain political and economic stability in the region, then taking a softer line on Greek debt may be worthwhile in the long run."

Speckhard also said that Europe could loosen some of the terms of Greece's bailout and give the Greek people time to realize that Syriza can't deliver on its populist promises and remain a member of the Euro currency.

Berlin and Brussels are worried such a solution would encourage Spain?which has its own left wing party gaining support?to renege on its bailout conditions. But Speckhard argues that taking a hard line on Greece won't prevent this from happening anyway.

      "Economically speaking, Greece might not be globally significant. But at a time when the U.S. and Europe is fighting costly political battles in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, poking a country like Greece?which sits at the crossroads of these regions?could be far more expensive in the long run," he said.

Here are some articles that were posted by HellasFrappe over the last few years. The first two articles vindicate our argument perfectly.

SPECIAL REPORT - Analyzing Meeting Of Tsipras & Angelopoulou-Daskalaki & Upcoming Clinton Global Conference
http://hellasfrappe.blogspot.gr/2014/11/special-report-analyzing-meeting-of.html

BUSTED - Tsipras' Side By Side With T.Miller & D. Speckhard - What The Greek Media Purposely Ignored
http://hellasfrappe.blogspot.gr/2013/02/busted-tsipras-side-by-side-with.html

Tsipras Holds Talks With US State Department Officials On Greek EEZ
http://hellasfrappe.blogspot.gr/2013/01/tsipras-holds-talks-with-us-state.html

BUSTED - Soros Funded Tsipras' Trip To US Says German Mag.
http://hellasfrappe.blogspot.gr/2013/02/busted-soros-funded-tsipras-trip-to-us.html

Hellasfrappe also proposes that you read the following articles as well, because the name of the game is pipelines. Quite interestingly SYRIZA's current moves in government are very similar to those of George Papandreou (oil exploration, relations with FYROM, Turkey, Soros, illegal immigration, the region of Thrace, etc).

VIDEO REPORT - Speckhard says Vote of Confidence Will Fail on Friday!
http://hellasfrappe.blogspot.gr/2011/11/video-report-speckhard-says-vote-of.html

SPECIAL REPORT - The Tale Of Sex, Marriage And Natural Gas Pipelines Continues....
http://hellasfrappe.blogspot.gr/2013/04/special-report-tale-of-sex-marriage-and.html

Wikileaks: "Semi-Secret Exploratory" Talks On Aegean Between Papandreou & Ankara
http://hellasfrappe.blogspot.gr/2012/02/wikileaks-semi-secret-exploratory-talks.html

NEW SCANDAL - Papandreou's Open Door Tactics To Illegal Immigrants Exposed
http://hellasfrappe.blogspot.gr/2012/08/new-scandal-papandreous-open-door.html

SPECIAL REPORT - Does Papandreou work on behalf of Greek or US interests? (VIDEOS)
http://hellasfrappe.blogspot.gr/2011/10/special-report-does-papandreou-work-on.html

SPECIAL REPORT - The Plot Thickens In Karamanlis Assassination Plot - More Details Exposed
http://hellasfrappe.blogspot.gr/2013/04/special-report-plot-thickens-in.html

WikiLeaks –Papandreou: Greek PM, or American Mediator?
http://hellasfrappe.blogspot.gr/2011/08/wikileaks-papandreou-greek-pm-or.html

SPECIAL REPORT - Classified documents reveal US energy coup & Papandreou's retreat on FYROM
http://hellasfrappe.blogspot.gr/2011/10/special-report-classified-documents.html

Tsipras: Greece & Cyprus pillars of stability in the region

Resolving the Cyprus issue is the cornerstone for Greek-Turkish relations and the consolidation of stability in the region, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said in joint statements with Cyprus’ President Nicos Anastasiades after their meeting in Nicosia on Monday. The enikos news site quoted Tsipras as saying that the economic crisis has burdened Greece and Cyprus and ending the Troika model would be a "positive institutional step." The Greek PM added that both Greece and Cyprus remain two significant pillars of stability in the region.

When asked to comment on Turkey’s violation of Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), Tsipras apparently noted the dispatch of the "Barbaros" research vessel which he said is "a flagrant violation of the international law and undermines the bilateral talks.”

When reporters asked him about a possible Russian loan, the Greek premier said that the government in Athens is in discussions with partners who have already lent Greece much needed capital and he noted that there are "no other thoughts" (on a possible loan from Russia).

He did however state that Cyprus and Greece can become "a bridge of peace" between Europe and Moscow.

(Editor's Note - Let us hope that the solution to the Cyprus issue does not come with another devastating Annan-type plan...  Moreover, we cannot forget the statements that have been made over time by various SYRIZA MPs regarding Greek-Turkish relations and the division of the Aegean Sea. Also, the recent comments by the government, or its sudden warming up to Moscow, does not convince us here at HellasFrappe that Greece has suddenly decided to rebuild its ties with Russia. We have yet to see any tangible hands on efforts towards such a development. As far as we are concerned it could just be deaf statements by the Tsipras government who we truly believe -judging by the Ministers and MPs that represent it- to be another Papandreou-style government. We truly hope that our instinct is wrong on this issue because we believe that Greece should befriend all nations, and be on equal terms with both the super powers of the West and the East. One of our readers asked us to give SYRIZA the benefit of the doubt... We will, and every time they adopt decisions that benefit Greece we will applaud them, however they are failing to convince us about their sudden love for Russia because they already turned down several privatisation offers -which were reportedly made by Russians in Greece-, and let us not forget that last week they also turned down the Chinese offer for the port of Piraeus.)

ANALYSIS - Did Cyprus΄ dream to become a major gas provider go up in smoke?

The regional conflict involving Cyprus, Turkey and Greece over energy reserves discovered in Cyprus΄ proximity in 2011 has escalated. After a number of recent failures in the international arena, the Turkish government may feel that it needs a victory in the Eastern Mediterranean at all costs. The following dilemma has given way to a great analysis on the situation by the PressProject. HellasFrappe decided to republish the article so that our readers can obtain a better understanding of what stakes are at play. We just want to point out that the views and opinions that are posted in this article do not necessarily agree and/or disagree with our own.

The story is fairly well-trodden now. Back in October 20, a research vessel, accompanied by two navy ships, was sent out from Turkey to do seismic testing within Cyprus's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), an abuse of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea, and an intimidation that led to Cyprus immediately calling off the ongoing peace talks between Cyprus and the self-declared TRNC (Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus) in northern Cyprus.

With a Turkish navy ship also observing the deep-sea drilling of gas deposits from eight kilometers away, we are seeing an escalation of a conflict that began when large gas deposits were discovered in Cyprus' proximity in 2011.

     "The least I can say is that negotiations, in order to produce results, cannot be conducted under such conditions of provocation," said Ioannis Kasoulides, the Cypriot foreign minister.

From Cyprus's perspective, a peace process cannot be undertaken in the context of such provocation. Turkey is acting illegally against a former foe to strongarm its way to natural gas deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean that lie under Cypriot sea. But is there more to this dispute than meets the eye?

Undersea gas deposits should - and still could - transform Cyprus's economy, which has suffered greatly since 2011. An estimated 5 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas was thought to be discovered in one offshore field within Cyprus's EEZ three years ago; the Cypriot government subsequently licensed U.S. energy firm Noble, Italy’s ENI and France’s Total to turn the discovery into an economic reality.

Added to that the likelihood of Cyprus becoming a gas hub, with new-found Israeli gas also running through it to reach European markets, while being surrounded by energy consumers eager to wean themselves off Russian gas dependency, it is easy to see how Cypriots saw undersea gas as a panacea to their economic strife.

It seems that neighbours Turkey and the TRNC had other ideas. In the eyes of Turkey, Cyprus is an illegitimate country, as the TRNC is to the rest of the world. Pro-government newspapers this week have been discussing the fact that Cyprus's EEZ was always disputed by Turkey, and the last maritime agreement that both countries agreed to was in 1960, in which much of the gas fields are within Turkey's range. Ergo, Turkey has a claim on the gas - and is willing to settle for some sort of share of the proceeds being given to the northern part of the island.

The problem facing Ankara here is that regardless of what it believes, the rest of the world failed to sufficiently sympathise with the Turkish invasion and does not recognise TRNC. Furthermore, Turkey has failed to receive any hint of EU or American backing, and is running out of friends - as its recent failure to join the UN Security Council as a temporary member illustrates. "The United States respects the Republic of Cyprus' sovereignty and right to develop resources in its exclusive economic zone, in keeping with customary international law,” chided Joe Biden via an official statement earlier this month.

While Cyprus is focusing on trying to extract natural resources, the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan's current foreign policy seems to involve making as many enemies in the region as possible, alienating Kurds, Shias, and Israel; and governments opposing the Muslim Brotherhood; meanwhile traditional foes such as Greece and Armenia persist in the background. Lukewarm efforts against the Islamic State have angered many governments worldwide. So with Turkey's reputation at rock-bottom, is it more than just coincidence that Cyprus chose this moment to provoke the old adversary?

From Cyprus's perspective the timing is understandable. A country in economic dire straits has a now-or-never moment to plunder its lucrative natural resources, while its neighbour is too busy fighting other battles and trying to restore its flagging reputation.

To raise the stakes, Cyprus has threatened to veto any further Turkish EU-joining procedures. Meanwhile Israel and Egypt eagerly joined the dispute. Egypt, which has got on well with Cyprus ever since the days of Nasser, is irritated by Erdogan's pro-Muslim Brotherhood rhetoric, and are in need of a local gas imports as well as EU-member allies. Meanwhile Israel and Turkey have been carping at each other for the past four years; Israel badly needs this disagreement settled so it can start drilling for gas and sending it across to Cyprus. Cyprus, Israel, Egypt and Greece have held  several meetings this month. But how far will these countries allow the crisis to escalate?

Many countries would fold under the such international pressure. To place Turkey in this category however would be to underestimate the belligerence of Erdogan when under pressure. When criticised, his instinct is usually to double-down, particularly with an election drawing close. His parliamentary majority is very safe and most of the media are afraid to criticize his policies. His strong position, domestically, gives him flexibility in how he deals with this crisis; the Turkish navy has been strengthened a great deal this year; Erdogan's supporters seem to appreciate his tough rhetoric that now incorporates Israel and Egypt as well as Cyprus.

After a number of failures in the international arena lately the Turkish government may feel that it needs a victory in the Eastern Mediterranean at all costs. So how far could this go? It is worth considering what might constitute a 'victory'. Earlier this month the TRNC's foreign minister, Özdil Nami, was invited to Israel for a major energy conference, suggesting that at least Israel can envisage a positive outcome involving both sides of the island.

Would some compensation for the TRNC be a fair outcome? Whatever one may feel about the rights and wrongs of the northern occupation, one might suggest that treating one group more favorably than the other holds moral implications. Furthermore, Cyprus would benefit from a settlement in the sense that under the current economic climate, any capital inflows are welcome. With this in mind, the current bout of sabre-rattling between the two states could well be an elaborate bluff, designed to make the financial settlement for either side be as favorable as possible.

The outcome may depend upon whether Erdogan sees the vested interests in the Eastern Mediterranean as part of a zero-sum game or not. Turkey may not enjoy watching its neighbours get stronger for geopolitical reasons, but on the other hand, it, too, can benefit from having more diverse resources. A potentially alternative source of natural gas to Russia should always be welcome - as Erdogan clearly seems to think, judging by his trip to Turkmenistan last week, where gas contracts have been signed.

Turkey should be able to benefit economically from having more prosperous neighbours, as it has with its trade with northern Iraq. It has already started selling electricity to TRNC, and soon will sell water. For the past two weeks Sabah, a government mouthpiece newspaper, has kept silent on the Cyprus issue, perhaps suggesting the government would like to quietly built bridges. It is up to both sides now to see if that is attainable.

PressProject

GEOPOLITICS - Greece & The Poker Game in the Mediterranean & M.East

The following analysis was written by Antonis Karakousis and featured in the Sunday print edition of To Vima.

Over the past few days American drones (unmanned spy planes) have been zipping through the Greek skies to unknown destinations. Greek authorities have been providing the necessary amenities for these spy missions, following relevant American requests, which are not as obvious as many may think.

Those who closely follow international developments are aware that the interest in the greater Southeastern Mediterranean, the Middle East, Turkey, the Caucasus, the Caspian region and Southern Russia is increasing. It is not just the threat of the Islamic State that is generating this interest, there are many other factors at play.

When called upon to analyze what is going on this greater region, reliable diplomatic sources do not hide the fact that the oil and natural gas reserves in these regions and their transportation routes greatly define this new interest.

They cynically confess that with natural energy sources being limited and not expected to last until 2050, the strategic importance of this region only intensifies. The importance of the Eastern Mediterranean and especially of these energy sources is significant for the super powers as well as is critical in determining the conditions for  long-term stability.

Presently the region is dominated by upheaval, which makes the transition to a stable phase quite difficult, let alone time-consuming. But let us not kid ourselves, this transition is not going to take a lot of effort and strength and will likely cause conflicts and upheavals.

Reliable diplomatic sources warn that the region's future will not be rosy.

The geopolitical poker game that is being played has many dangers and threats for everyone. There are many undetermined factors and parameters that will influence the control of energy sources and establishing long-term stability in the greater region is also a challenge.

For example, the Americans have many reasons to be interested in the region, and they recognize that ISIS is a threat. They also understand Turkey's Islamic games, but their overall stance towards these two issues -especially Turkey- does not really define their policies. The Americans recognize the geostrategic location of our neighbor, accept Turkey's role in the transportation of oil and natural gas from the Caspian and treat Ankara as a key country against Russia, which they cannot trust following the developments in Ukraine.

The US would like to take advantage of Iran's hostility towards the jihadists, but in no way do they want to see a purely Shi'ite alliance between Tehran and Beirut because that would pose a threat to their traditional ally in the region, which is none other than Israel.

They would much rather prefer that a new Kurdish state emerge as a wedge between Iran and Lebanon.

Of course this is where things start to get complicated.

A unified Kurdish state, which would sit between Iran and Israel, cannot emerge without Turkey ceding territory from its southeastern corner.

Our neighbors across the Aegean would never accept such a development. They have spent countless resources and lost thousands of men over the past few decades in order to get the Kurdish areas in the south east under their control. It is therefore only wise to conclude that they are not going to accept the creation of Kurdish state without a fight because they would lose territory.

The oil fields of Mosul could provide a solution, but that is probably not enough and does not suit the imperial profile that Sultan Tayyip Erdogan has been developing over the past few years.

The same diplomatic sources note that the mere ascertainment of a potential threat, much less a direct expression of such intentions, would automatically trigger Turkey's claims on the western front.

Turkish provocations in Cyprus are already being treated as a response to the pressure Ankara is experiencing on its eastern front.

It has been reported that Turkey has suffered many defeats, political and diplomatic, on its eastern front, so the Ankara establishment is vying for quick victories on other fronts.

Greece, which is hoping to evolve into an energy player, cannot obviously stand idle with a geopolitical chess game being played out in the greater Mediterranean and Middle East areas. Our country must secure itself against all potential dangers, liberate itself from  financial dependence, seek out strong and stable alliances, exhaust all possibilities on coming to an agreement with Turkey and finally we need to develop a strategy that is going to protect our national interests.

Foreign diplomats associate this strategy with supporting the Greek Armed Forces and are essentially preparing the domestic political classes for a new expensive arms race. They point out that you cannot take advantage of oil and natural gas without reliable Armed Forces. The same officials do not hesitate to warn that “without international alliances and strong Armed Forces, oil can quickly turn from a blessing into a curse”.

In any case, and beyond the financial crisis which is now being overcome, Greeks have to realize that our country sits on the edge of an area that suffers (and gives way) to major conflicts and upheavals. A region, where changes in borders are the dominant element.

So as you can see, a geopolitical poker game is being played in the greater Mediterranean and Middle East. There are many players and Greece now has a seat at this table...

Greece & Cyprus May Take Legal Action Against Turkey

While briefing the parliamentary Standing Committee on National Defense and Foreign Affairs on the latest developments in the Eastern Mediterranean, Foreign Minister Evangelos Venizelos did not rule out the likelihood for Greece and Cyprus to take legal action against "Turkey's extreme, blatant and provocative stance which violates international legality/". He said that Ankara's stance and provocative actions in the Eastern Mediterranean prove that it does not respect international law since it decided to press forth and send the Turkish research vessel 'Barbaros' in Cyprus' continental shelf.

     "Our reaction so far is politically strong, but may assume a legal nature as well," he said.
     "Turkey has no substantive argument and there is no reason for concern as regards the mineral resources, which will belong to the central government that will safeguard the rights of both sides - Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots alike - in a way that will be not only equal but also friendlier to the Turkish Cypriot side to be able to advance financially and rise to an equal status," added Venizelos.

The Greek Foreign Minister noted that the positive solution of the Cyprus issue is the catalyst for the Greek-Turkish relations, while he pointed out that the Greek side has never abandoned its steadfast position that Turkey's European prospect depends on its (the Cyprus issue) solution.

     "We continue all contacts on all levels in all 58 exploratory rounds. We have never abandoned the dialogue with Turkey in the context of the foreign policy that has been shaped in the past 40 years," Venizelos concluded.

Greek Reply To Turkish War Threat - We Have Our Own Rules of Engagement!

The Turkish government apparently authorised the county’s navy to implement recently amended Rules of Engagement to alledgedely "deal with" the tensions over energy exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, press reports from Ankara said on Sunday. Speaking at the Eastern Mediterranean Military Exercise (Blue Whale-2014), hosted by Turkey, Bostanoglu sent a chilling warning to Greece and Cyprus. He said that the Prime Minister of Turkey Ahmed Davutoglu handed the Rules of Engagement to the Chief of General Staff and the Chief of Staff then passed them on to the Naval Forces Command.

In simple terms, Turkey has prepared itself for war, and Bostanoglu left it to be understood that Turkey will not stop with its activities in the eastern Mediterranean, while he also had the audacity to state that Turkish forces will keep a close eye on Greek Cypriot oil research vessels in Cyprus' very own EEZ.

     "We will act in line with these Rules of Engagement in the event we face a situation over this issue” he said and added: “Our naval forces elements will continue their mission of situational awareness in the region.” 

The Vice Admiral stated that Turkey’s Rules of Engagement, which had been modified in 2012 when a Turkish fighter jet was shot down by the Syrian army, would apply to Naval forces if there was any disturbance over Cyprus.

     “The Turkish Naval Forces is providing support and close protection to the Barbaros Hayrettin Paşa Research Vessel. On the other hand, it continues to keep the drill ship hired by the Greek Cypriot administration under surveillance from nine kilometers’ distance. The order given to us for the moment is not to enter into this nine-kilometer area. That’s why no incident of harassment or disturbance has occurred,” he added.

In Athens, the Greek government attempted to downplay the comments and left it to be understood that there were made for Turkey's own domestic consumption as a response to the signing of the Cairo Declaration between Greece, Cyprus and Egypt one day earlier.

(It should be reminded that the joint communique that was issued by all three nations on Saturday urged Turkey to respect the sovereignty of the three countries as well as to cease its provocative surveys and similar future activities in Cyprus' EEZ.)

On Monday, President of the Republic Karolos Papoulias would receive Minister of Foreign Affairs Evangelos Venizelos in order to discuss all the recent developments in our foreign policy. Undoubtedly, the recent trilateral summit in Cairo with Egypt and Cyprus will be at the top of the agenda, along with the delineation of Exclusive Economic Zones.

A short while before the meeting, a report on defencenet, citing Pentagon sources, said that Greece also released its own Rules of Engagement (answering Ankara's threats of war). The report said that the focus is now on the southeastern Aegean and especically in the area of Kastelorizo. ​​

     “Greece also has its own Rules of Engagement, approved by the Prime Minister and the Cabinet, not only for the Aegean Sea but also for the South-East Mediterranean in defense of Greek national interests. It would a surprise for us if  Turks had not such rules,” the report on defencenet said.

Between Oct. 20 and Oct. 23, the Russian, Israeli and Greek Cypriot navies conducted a joint naval exercise covering air defense, underwater attacks and anti-submarine operations and developed joint operational procedures. The Russian anti-submarine vessel Kulakov, the flagship of Russia's Mediterranean fleet, and Novorcherkassk, a landing vessel of Russia's Black Sea fleet, participated in these exercises, during which live rockets were fired.

NATO and Turkey were quick to respond. The low-profile "Blue Whale" exercise by a small Turkish naval element and a US logistics ship will be repeated with much larger participation Nov. 6-14.

A report in Al-Monitor claims that Comparing the two exercises, it's notable that while the Russia-Israel-Greek Cypriot joint exercise focused on undersea warfare, NATO’s will focus on surface and underwater reconnaissance, surveillance and anti-submarine warfare. In short, while Russia is trying to develop its military capacity to operate in the eastern Mediterranean without being detected, NATO is working to develop ways to detect Russian moves in advance

Turkish military sources who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity drew attention to several important points. They said that military activity in the eastern Mediterranean has increased to dangerous levels since October. It has become almost routine for warships of rival countries to try to force each other to alter their courses in international waters, send low-altitude flights over rival warships, instigate dog fights in the sky and lock weapons-guiding radar onto each other's vessels. All these point to heightened risks of clashes in the region.

To sum it all up, the Syrian crisis, the Israeli-Palestinian problem, the continuing division of Cyprus, disputes between Israel and Lebanon and between Turkey and Greek Cypriots on the exclusive economic zone and disagreements on resource rights in international waters are all heating up the eastern Mediterranean and jeopardizing the security of critical maritime trade routes. Regional rivalries over $1.5 trillion worth of hydrocarbon reserves is gradually militarizing the issue. The global competition between Russia, which wants to preserve its interests in the Mediterranean, and NATO, which wants to avoid a Ukraine-style fait accompli, are intensifying the conflict. States with interest in the area each appear to consider the eastern Mediterranean "their waters" and will try to impose their views through both diplomatic and military moves.

One can only hope that the pilots of rival air forces and the captains of the warships that frequently encounter each other in the eastern Mediterranean will continue to be not only skilled professionals but also astute politicians with honed diplomatic skills.

Combined reports from: enikos.gr, Hurriyet, Al-Monitor, ANA-MPA and ProtoThema.gr

Hey Davutoglu Take Your Imperialistic Ideas & Shove Them You Know Where!

By Sener Levent) Cyprus' Politis - How dare they insult us and make fun of us? And yet, none of us comes forth to put them in their place. Everyone swallows and digests whatever they place in his large intestine. This man considers our land as his own domain. As if it is inherited property from his father. “If you so wish, we can discuss the scenario of a two-state solution”, says (Turkish PM) Davutoglu to the Greek Cypriots. Which means, the southern part of Cyprus is yours and the northern part is ours.

He begs them, saying “if indeed you think in such terms, then come to the table, let us sit down and make a deal”. Ahmed Davutoglu said this. The son of Davut, Mr. Ahmed. Where does he come from? From Turkey. He is not a Cypriot. Then, who has given him the right to speak about Cyprus? Cyprus is our homeland, Mr. Ahmed. Ours. The Cypriots. Not yours. You cannot decide about what we will do and not do here. We decide. You mind your own business. Because of you, and the likes of you, Turkey is on the verge of a partition. Go to save her, from now on, if you can. Just think, one telephone call from Obama was sufficient. You made a huge 180 degree turn. As you were heading for the Cape of St. Andreas, you turned at Yialousa and went to Tera. And now you come for a song and dance? Because you were unable to bring Assad to his knees, you are pouring your spleen on Cyprus? Your power was not sufficient to force Assad, and you will force [President of Cyprus] Anastasiades? Please keep this between us, but Anastasiades brought this on himself. For all these slaps that he received from you. He flattered you too much. So he deserves such a response from you.

Look Mr. Ahmed, the last Ottoman Grand Vezier. Pay attention! Do something! Because I believe that not even your own ears listen to what comes out of your mouth! You say that “the sea bed and the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus belong to both her communities”. So, if they belong to the two communities, what is this to you? What has happened to you? What business do you have in these seas? Who gave you the right to speak on our behalf? Mr. Dervis [Eroglu, the president of the puppet regime in occupied Cyprus, an entity recognized by no other country except Turkey, whose unilateral declaration has been condemned by the UNSC 31 years ago]. But Mr. Dervis is your salaried employee here. You pay him! After all, is it not you that has been boasting for so many years that you are footing the bill for our upkeep?

Then, what is all this circus? Since when do you demand and get authorization from one of your salaried employees? Is not the administration here under your authority? Everyone knows that you have been the occupying power for forty years now, in this part of the island, and you are under the impression that we are the only ones who do not know? Do not be fooled by those of us who express their gratitude to you. There is no one who wishes two states in Cyprus, and anything else along this line. The Cypriot people wish a united Cyprus. From Rizokarpaso to Paphos. If this does not happen now, it will happen for sure at some day in the future. There is no possibility that the Cypriots will never come to their senses!

This chauvinism, this craziness will end on some day, for sure.

You say that the exclusive economic zone belongs to both communities, but you do not seem to comprehend it yourself. The Greek Cypriots never said that it belongs only to them. Yet, even if there is no solution to the Cyprus problem, thanks to you, and you have postponed the return of Varoshia [the city of Famagusta outside the medieval walls, whose return to its rightful inhabitants Turkey was asked to allow, but has not, since the pertinent UNSC resolution of 1977], do not think that they will let us smell any of the benefits of the solution to the problem, before the actual solution takes place. Hands off Cyprus!

And you can take your two states, and you know where you can stick them! (Πάρε τα δύο σου κράτη και βάλε τα εκεί που ξέρεις!)

Sener Levent is the editor of the Turkish-Cypriot newspaper Afrika. He has been repeatedly threatened and heavily fined by the Turkish puppet regime of occupied Cyprus. His long-time colleague Kutlu Adali was murdered in 1996 in occupied Cyprus. His murder remains a mystery, though it was well known then that he had been threatened several times by the occupation authorities and their roughnecks. Turkey has been condemned by the European Court of Human Rights for the handling of the murder investigation of Adali, and damages were awarded to his widow. Recently, Levent has claimed, in the same column of Politis, that Adali had actually uncovered evidence that special forces from Turkey had come to Cyprus in 1995, right before the inquiry into the missing Cypriots who were American citizens by the late Richard Holbrook, and excavated mass graves near the St. Barnabas Monastery, and then dumped all the bones of the dead into the sea, so that they could never be found!

First published in Greek, in the Greek Cypriot newspaper Politis, on the 23rd of October, 2014 –
http://www.politis-news.com/
First appeared in English on Mignatiou.com
http://mignatiou.com/2014/10/ahmed-take-them-and-you-know-where-you-can-stick-them/

Greece-Cyprus-Egypt Alliance: New Pillar of Stability in Mediterranean

The Foreign Affairs Ministers of Greece, Cyprus and Egypt (Evangelos Venizelos, Ioannis Kasoulidis and Sameh Shoukry, respectively) issued a joint communique at the weekend, after holding a meeting in New York. In their communique, the Ministers praised the progress of the ongoing negotiations regarding mutually beneficial sectors, while it also points out that this new alliance could turn out to be a new pillar of stability in the Mediterranean.

All three FMs had the opportunity to evaluate and discuss latest developments in the region and underlined the importance of cooperation, particularly in the energy sector.

Both Greece and Cyprus offered their support to the Egyptian government and its people, but also praised the efforts made to adopt a new Constitution via referendum between January 14-15 which press reports claim aims to entrench basic human rights.

On the issue of Cyprus, all three men lauded the recent appointment of Espen Barth Eide as UN Special Envoy to Cyprus and repeated their commitment towards finding a solution to the Cypriot dispute, based on UN Security Council resolutions.

Turning to matters in the Middle East, and specifically to Gaza, all three Ministers stressed the importance of the two sides resuming negotiations in order to come up with a mutually-accepted solution that can sustain peace. The FMs also expressed their hope that the talks scheduled to begin in Norway on October 12th is going to work towards this goal.

On other matters, and especially on the developments in Iraq and Syria, particularly regarding human rights violations and terrorist activities, (minority groups being persecuted by ISIL), the ministers noted the importance of collective action under the UN, but at the same time warned that other extremist groups are also operating in the region.

GEOPOLITICS - Behind Turkey’s Roaring - MUST READ

By Marcus A. Templar - Turkey’s refusal to submit flight plans for its military airplanes is consistent with its doctrine of preemptive strike when the time is ripe. Turkey’s doctrine developed from the fact that not only it went unpunished for a number of rogue actions that it perpetrated against Greek interests especially after it joined NATO, but it was additionally rewarded for the same by consecutive Greek, Cypriot, also NATO governments.

The issue of Cyprus in the early 1950’s started as a matter between the UK and Greece. Turkey was nowhere to be seen. Somehow Greece accepted London’s pressure and Turkey was brought into the equation. For that Greek docile behavior the Hellenism of the island has suffered and keeps suffering. Turks still call the Greek Cypriots Rum instead of Greeks as if they were part of the Ottoman Rum Millet within the Turkish Empire.

The pogroms on September 1955 and 1964 not only went unanswered, but Greek governments are silent when Turkey encourages and implements further violations of the Treaty of Lausanne. In addition Turkey’s politicians demand reciprocity.

Perhaps Greece should oblige them by deporting an equal percent of Muslims of Thrace and the Dodecanese.

The invasion of Turkey on Cyprus not only went unanswered, but it was additionally rewarded by the behavior of two Greek American public relations firms whose infighting produced the Turkey 10 vs. Greece 7 ratio in the mid 1970’s.

Turkey was also rewarded for its rogue conduct by that mere fact that governments of Free Cyprus with the “assistance” of all Greek governments negotiated and negotiate the terms of Cyprus’ own occupation rendering the resolutions of the UNSC invalid. It is as if the government of General De Gaulle aiming at the legitimization of Hitler’s occupation of Vichy France, negotiated the terms of occupation that would determine the degree of a literal enslavement of the people of south France.

I wonder if all those who negotiate the de facto occupation of Cyprus by Turkey are going to live under the same conditions that they try so hard to impose on others.

Turkey has been rewarded for its immorality by the EU, which has not only allowed the occupation of its own territory, but in addition it has accepted to negotiate Turkey’s candidacy. NATO has rewarded Turkey by accepting Turkey’s attack against an independent country under the rationale that the lives and welfare of its compatriots were in danger.

At that time, although NATO was a strictly defensive organization, it accepted Turkey’s rationale of the “Peace” operation as a benevolent action.

Recently, NATO has rejected Russia’s identical rationale and hypocritically vies to punish Russia’s “illegal” annexation of Crimea, as if the northern part of Cyprus is not annexed hiding behind lexical semantics on what constitutes an annexed territory.

Moreover, Turkey is in violation of the Geneva Convention IV, Article 49, sixth paragraph, which provides: “The Occupying Power shall not deport or transfer parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies”, and yet as far as NATO is concerned, all is well!

One more point one must consider is the difference on the casualty lists of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the Turkish invasion of Cyprus. During the Turkish invasion, but also later, besides the results of the conflict (killed in action, missing in action, wounded, and prisoners of war), the human rights of a good number of unfortunate Greek Cypriots were violated by being subjected to torture, extra-judicial killings, illegal arrests and detentions, arbitrary taxations, property crimes, forced labor, trafficking, forced displacement and rape. The forced labor of civilians and POWs alike along with human trafficking took place on Turkish soil after the captured individuals were transported to the mainland.

The above does not include the ineffectiveness of the Turkish military considering that Turkey lost 19 fighter planes against no air force and 2 ships against no navy. The actual personnel casualties of both sides is unknown to me. What is known is that the ratio of the invasion 1 to 4 could easily be raised to 1 to 6 if one considers that the Turkish military was heavily armed facing a lightly armed opponent, the Cypriot National Guard.

In military tactics for a successful invasion, the normal ratio of an invading force is four against one of the defenders. Rarely an attacking force would reach the point six against one of the defending opponent unless the attacker is unsure of his own military capabilities against the specific opponent.

Also, it should be noted that the Turkish invading forces were stuck in the areas of Kyrenia and Morphou for about a couple of weeks and occupied the areas they are holding at present only after the UNSC had declared ceasefire.

The above facts should have raised some eyebrows in NATO.

To those who conveniently suggest that “we are all brothers” or we should forgive and forget, they had better visit their nearest Holocaust Museum or the 9/11 Memorial in New York City.

Read more at: macedoniahellenicland

Forbes article on pipeline project vindicates Karamanlis energy policies

The following article appeared in Forbes recently and simply vindicates the policies that were adopted by the Costas Karamanlis government which wanted to transform Greece into an energy hub for all of Europe. It should be reiterated that the pipeline projects were more or less sabotaged under the George Papandreou government, who also once said that natural gas and oil does not exist in Greece (of course today, we know that this statement was a complete lie). Also, we know today that specific American diplomats (such as Mathew Bryza) worked hard against this development (because he was endorsing Turkish interests which want the pipelines running through Turkey instead).

Here is the article:

     As much of Europe spent the last month worrying about what might happen if Russia decided to shut the valve on its gas supply, Athens has apparently decided the time is right to push a new energy role. This week, Greece’s Energy Ministry launched an international tender for a pipeline project that would transport about 8 billion cubic meters of gas into the European market from offshore fields controlled by Cyprus and Israel. According to a Reuters report, the project would link Israel’s Leviathan natural gas field to Europe by way of Greece through the IGI-Poseidon pipeline, managed by Italy’s Edison and Greece’s state-backed utility, DEPA.
     For Israel, the pipeline would provide the country’s first long-distant export option. Israel has recently announced a series of export agreements for its offshore efforts, 40 percent of which is allotted for sale outside of the country. However, so far, they have all been local, including sales to Jordan, Palestinian utilities and talks with both Egypt and Turkey. For Greece, a successful pipeline would help them carve out a long-sought energy role in the area.
     Over the last three years, Athens has made a concerted effort to lay claim to the Eastern Mediterranean’s recent energy rush, both as a potential transport hub for Israeli and Cypriot gas reserves and as a producer itself. The latter role, which has included studies suggesting offshore reserves near Crete, has failed to catch fire beyond political rhetoric. Meanwhile, after this week, it appears the country’s transport aspirations may have some potential.

Continue reading article by clicking HERE

Skeletons in cave reveal Mediterranean secrets

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Genetic and chemical analyses of human skeletal remains reveal origins and food habits of first Sicilians

Skeletal remains in an island cave in Favignana, Italy, reveal that modern humans first settled in Sicily around the time of the last ice age and despite living on Mediterranean islands, ate little seafood. The research wass published in the open access journal PLOS ONE by Marcello Mannino and colleagues from the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, Germany.

Genetic analysis of the bones discovered in caves on the Egadi islands provides some of the first mitochondrial DNA data available for early humans from the Mediterranean region, a crucial piece of evidence in ancestry analysis. This analysis reveals the time when modern humans reached these islands. Mannino says:

     "The definitive peopling of Sicily by modern humans only occurred at the peak of the last ice age, around 19,000 -26,500 years ago, when sea levels were low enough to expose a land bridge between the island and the Italian peninsula".

The authors also analyzed the chemical composition of the human remains and found that these early settlers retained their hunter-gatherer lifestyles, relying on terrestrial animals rather than marine sources for meat. According to the study, despite living on islands during a time when sea level rise was rapid enough to change within a single human lifetime, these early settlers appear to have made little use of the marine resources available to them. The authors conclude,

     "These findings have crucial implications for studies of the role of seafood in the diet of Mediterranean hunter-gatherers."

BUSTED - Energy Sellout to Turks Confirmed - Greek Debt Misery continues, Cyprus Find Announced

John Ward (The Slog) - Senior Athens sources on Tuesday night confirmed The Slog’s blogosphere exclusive earlier this week on the subject of 70% of the income from Cretan energy and rare earth finds off Crete going into non-Greek coffers. But further evidence of bribery and energy finds in Cyprus show yet again that Greece’s sphere of Mediterranean influence is merely an unwilling prize in the ongoing energy, banking and German hegemony game.

Said a senior Greek Government consultant:

     “All I know is that the Professor [minerologist Antonis Foskolos] is absolutely correct. I have the technical reports to prove it… there is a secret deal whereby Turkey gets 40%, Greece 30%, Cyprus 20% and Brussels 10%.”

(HellasFrappe disputes these figures: We will continue to insist that it is a 20+20+60 deal, as reported over one year ago on this very blog. Click HERE for that story. However we totally agree about everything Foskolos has said.)

The figure most likely to both alarm and anger Greeks of all class and age groups is the inexplicable (in justice terms) award of more income from the Crete find for Turkey than Greece. But this is really nothing more than those involved in the Cyprus energy heist sharing out the spoils….and cutting out both the Americans and the Israelis. Quite a coup for Erdogan.

Hot on the heels of this news comes the announcement of a major oil find off Cyprus at region 12 – amounting to around 1.2-1.4 billion barrels….plus, very much under the table, further ECB bribery to keep the Cypriot élite sweet: some €5 bn euros in cash has been secretly flown into Nicosia.

     “Nobody counted or even certified the cash delivery,” said a source, ” so they don’t know in what form the five billion of cash went into Cyprus Central Bank accounts”.

While some are clearly on the take in Cyprus, the Cretian deal in particular is bound to raise questions about what senior Athens government ministers might have taken as their share of doing a deal that is, by any standards, ludicrously unfair to Greece.

Why, for instance, have the confirmations of Cretan energy and mineral finds not been used by Samaras and co as collateral with which to force the issue of debt relief for Greece? Why indeed have creditors not been offered an energy futures bond swap in return for unrepayable debt? Better a futures deal, surely, than winding up with nothing.

A lot of the key to this (apart from the usual standard issue Greek elite corruption) is the Troika itself, an organisation beyond the accountability of any elected government body. With such freedom, the Troikanauts have hired several financial consultancies, who go on to play a central role in all the eurozone bailouts… especially the Greek bailouts and the infamous Cypriot bailin.

The usual suspects are always involved: Deloitte, Ernst&Young, KPMG and PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) – and the end result is a “golden circle” of a dozen or so large firms with a  monopoly on handling EU bailouts.

They are usually hired without any public tender – sometimes despite potential conflicts of interest, which arise from links to investment funds and other financial service providers.

The case of New York-based consultancy Alvarez and Marsal is particularly intriguing. During their ‘advice’ period for the Cyprus bailin, A&M screwed up bigtime and overcharged – according to an internal audit by the Cyprus central bank board seen by the site EUobserver. But in December 2012, the Cyprus central bank chief Panicos Demetriades shortlisted Alvarez and Marsal for several new contracts.

He did so despite the fact the board had “ruled out” the consultancy due to “potential perceived conflicts of interest” related to its Bank of Cyprus evaluation.

The cash flights, bribes, backstairs deals and energy horse-trades are being organised and pushed through by further sub-contractors hired by the Golden Circle. BlackRock Solutions, for instance, stands accused by some observers of using insider knowledge after the Athens Government awarded them a contract worth €12.3 million.

The Samaras regime did so because kickbacks were involved, and the Troikanauts  had become so hated in Greece… so BlackRock Solutions used a fake name (“Solar”) and recruited 18 armed security guards to do its “work”. From what the author of the Slog sees early in 2013, this mainly involved providing armed guards for the likes of Venizelos – but Athenians know perfectly well who they were. The author simply points them out, and contacts there would shrug and mutter “Blackrock”.

However, the consultancy’s appointment also included subcontracting to the Big Four audit firms and having detailed knowledge of recapitalisation plans. Being the biggest asset manager in the world, that gave them a competitive advantage if they used the knowledge…. For example, against close competitor Pimco…, which had also been hired earlier.

But other clouds, smoke, mirrors, cloaks and daggers remain to niggle away at the credibility of the EU, other major powers, national leaders and the ECB when it comes to how and why Greece and Cyprus wound up being raped. Cyprus was, for me, an open and shut case: egged on by Wolfgang Schauble and Mario Draghi, the EC simply removed the island’s major income source and then impoverished its major bank depositors…, while Russian and Cypriot crooks and gangsters suspiciously managed to remove their money ahead of time.

Equally however, there remain inconsistencies and irregularities in the way solid Greek assets were "used". A good example is its hospital infrastructure.

On October 2nd 2009, before the October 2009 Elections, the National Statistical Service of Greece ELSTAT sent Eurostat the deficit and debt notification tables for Greek hospitals. These included an estimate of the outstanding liabilities at 2.3 billion euros. The new government inflated the 2.3 billion euros by 4.3 billion euros making it equal to 6.6 billion euros as it is described in their “Technical Report on the Revision of Hospital Liabilities” of February 2010.

(This must also be viewed, by the way, in the light of ELSTAT whistleblowers  who have since then confirmed that senior EU officials and politicians encouraged the Athens government to exaggerate the size of its fiscal problem as a whole.)

The new government then tried to load all this extra 5.4 billion euros of hospital liabilities into one year, 2008. At first, Eurostat rejected this in writing, but later it bowed to government pressure.

This entire exercise is clearly against the European Regulations ESA95 (see ESA95 par. 3.06, EC No. 2516/2000 article 2, Commission Reg. EC No. 995/2001) and against the European Statistics Code of Practice, especially regarding the principles of independence of statistical measurements, statistical objectivity and reliability. It was also very clearly to Greece’s disadvantage: but the Papandreou Government did it.

Why?

The Slog posted extensively about this at the time, and was then requoted and reblogged widely elsewhere. The reason for the overstatement was in fact very simple: the Franco-German debt exposure desperately needed ALL the eurozone members to agree to new help for Greece. The situation thus had to look as bad as possible. As the author of the Slog wrote soon afterwards:

    "Somewhere in the midst of these talks, Berlin requested a smaller meeting with the Greeks. At this meeting, three sources (two Greek and one German) allege, the small German delegation made an astonishing observation: the situation would “have to look more desperate” in order to justify a bailout to the other Eurozone members. That is to say, only widespread fear of the entire eurozone being damaged would get the member States to pile in with bailout monies. What Berlin was really worried about, of course, was that the Franco-German banking system might collapse if Greece wasn’t saved. And at that stage, little or nothing had been done to make the sector better able to withstand a derivatives wave."

The Slog bashes on about this with every post about Greece, but those of us further West must grasp once for all the reality that Greco-Cypriot problems are dictated as much if not more by energy geopolitics and major power bank fears as they were by corrupt Greek leaders and idiotically greedy Franco-American lenders. Over the years the Slog has pointed out the obvious sub-plot going on, but each time much of what The Slog suggested has been ridiculed or dismissed as "power politics paranoia".

Unfortunately for those who said such things, the Slog has been largely vindicated... or rather, the author's sources have: there is a battle for energy hegemony going on between Washington, Brussels and Moscow, there is a tug-of-war going on between Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, Brussels and Israel about South-East Med. mineral and gas finds, Turkey has been rewarded on the sly for toeing the NATO bollocks in relation to Syria, Recep Erdogan is proving to be an unhinged Islamist who imprisons opposing military and political leaders, David Cameron’s pro-Erdogan/anti-Israel speech of two years ago has been shown up as badly judged nonsense, Syrian intervention would have turned into Anglo-American disaster, energy has been found off Crete and Cyprus, American naval influence has scared the EU/EC axis of thuggery into action, and there is a lot going on behind the scenes of so-called Troika debt management to suggest that, as ever, this is a question of industrial scale corruption and munnneee.

It’s easy to tell from both hits and comment threads these days that Greece has become a forgotten subject for the vast majority of EU and US citizens. But this author promises you, for the oil business, the spooks, the Russians and the banks, it is anything but.

Wake up: A fundamentally decent and solvent nation is being meat-cleavered to bits by bank interests and energy mania. For all its internally irresponsible and venal Establishment hoodlums, the real Hellenic Republic’s deficit -  at 7.8% of GDP in 2009 – was grossly exaggerated and eventually emerged (in a slavishly reported BBCNews story) of November 15th 2010 – at 15.4%. But as former ELSTAT board member Zoi Georganta testified in 2011:

     “….had the 2009 warnings from this Commission been been enacted even as late as Papandreou’s arrival, ‘the measures would have succeeded if they had been properly and promptly implemented without any need for a bailout….”

Berlin wanted Franco-German banks protected, but it also wanted a victim to give Germany the dominant role in eventual FiskalUnion. It has got pretty much everything it wanted, but Greece is dead in the water. This is the measure of Merkel’s genius for Weltpolitik.

Earlier this week she was confirmed as the Chancellor at the head of a Grand German political alliance. A month ago, Brussels-am-Berlin told Samaras to go whistle for his promised Christmas debt relief. The German-dominated EC now has the same role as Jeremy Hunt does with NHS Trusts in England: to quietly bankrupt them – as the necessary excuse for Mammon’s gauleiters to step in.

Athens (and Nicosia) have accepted the following: falsified debt figures, a repayment schedule that is a permanent trap, endless waves of destructive austerity, terrible levels of citizen destitution, the dictatorship of banking and investment interests, German tabloid insults about the Greek work ethic, German lies about personal Greek wealth levels, reneging on various promises by the EC and ECB, economic grand larceny, depositor theft, and now a grubby share-out among its enemies of the main wealth route the Republic has out of this cynically inflicted poverty.

That this has been achieved with the active collaboration of its political élites is brutally obvious.

One result of that despicable Fifth Columnism has been the rise and rise of Golden Dawn.

In the meantime, the hour has arrived for some real investigations of how this appalling mess really happened….and some direct action to put the New Democracy Coalition and its EC paymasters under intolerable pressure.

(*Note from HellasFrappe: We agree with John's article but we still think he does not have the correct figures as far as the pooling of Greece's reserves are concerned. We believe it is a 20+20+60 deal, (20 to Greece, 20 to Turkey and 60 to US-Israeli companies), and we analyzed this in a special report that was posted on our blog earlier this week. Click HERE to read that. We also want to ask why he refuses to mention that George Papandreou sealed this deal, and why he has never commented on this. Also, he mentioned BlackRock, does he realize that the party that he is endorsing -SYRIZA- has members within its ranks that have mutual funds in BlackRock? Click HERE to read that. We nonetheless totally agree that this was a fake debt crisis all for the sake of stealing Greece's natural reserves! After all, HellasFrappe has said it from the start, and will contine to shout this to the world until someone finally listens!)

Erdogan Statements Destabilize The Eastern Mediterranean

Turkish PM - Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. (credit: Wikipedia)

(Mignatiou.com) - Members of the Coordinated Effort of Hellenes informed key Washington policymakers of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent dangerous statements and their consequences. CEH leaders explained how Erdogan’s statements have injured the interests of the United States, Israel and the stability of the Eastern Mediterranean.

Last week Erdogan broke with the United Nations, European Union, United States and every other country in the world when he said, “There is no country named Cyprus. There is the local administration of south Cyprus.” This outrageous statement follows his similarly unjustified recent claims that Israel was instrumental in the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood’s government in Egypt, that Turkey has ownership of Cyprus’ hydrocarbons, as well as expressing his support for extremist Islamist factions in Syria.

These developments were highlighted for policymakers in an effort to help assure America does not inadvertently contribute to this irresponsible tact that Erdogan has chosen to take. These recent actions by Erdogan have damaged the belief that Turkey should serve as a model for other Muslim countries to emulate.

American policymakers should focus on helping those whom Erdogan is injuring – the people of Turkey, Israel, the United States and Cyprus. He injures both Turkish-Cypriots and Greek-Cypriots who oppose both Turkey’s nearly 40-year military occupation of Cyprus and Turkey’s illegal infusion into Cyprus of hundreds of thousands of Turks. These Cypriots desperately desire the reunification of their peace-loving island. Unlike many Muslims and Christians in the Eastern Mediterranean, these two communities have related harmoniously on Cyprus for nearly all of their hundreds of years together.

The Coordinated Effort of Hellenes urged policymakers to bear in mind Erdogan’s irresponsible conduct as they approach efforts to negotiate an end to Turkey’s almost 40-year occupation and division of Cyprus.

ANALYSIS - Will Turkey Be The New Hub For Gas? - MUST READ

Map of the South Stream and Nabucco natural gas transportation pipelines. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

(Gulshan Dietl, IDSA)  - Largely unaffected by the stagnation in most of the developed world, the Turkish economy has continued to grow and stands at $800 million today. Consequently, its demand for energy has increased and is expected to double over the next decade, according to the International Energy Agency.

Natural gas accounts for an increasing share of the energy basket in Turkey. Its gas-generated electricity demand growth is estimated to be even higher. Turkey’s natural gas reserves are 218 billion cubic feet (bcf) and its production is roughly 27 bcf. In the circumstances, it relies heavily on imports to meet its domestic demand. Additionally, Turkey positions itself as a gas transit hub – importing from Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iran and re-exporting some of it to Europe.

More importantly, it provides passage from the gas production sites to the consumers. Today, it holds a privileged location between the substantial gas reserves of the Caspian basin and Russia and the substantial market in Europe.

In 2011, the country imported approximately 890 bcf from Russia via the underwater Black Sea Blue Stream pipeline, about 290 bcf from Iran via the Tabriz-Dogubayazit pipeline, and approximately 140 bcf from Azerbaijan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum pipeline. The latter one is expected to be integrated into the Southern Gas Corridor pipelines – a European Union initiative to secure gas from the Caspian.

A critical scrutiny of the prospects for Turkey’s emergence as the natural gas hub is in order. The domestic demand is growing leaving little surplus to meet re-export commitment – especially during the peak months. The gas infrastructure has been vulnerable to frequent terrorist attacks leading to supply disruptions. The Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum pipeline or any other pipeline entering from Georgia has to pass through Turkey’s Kurdish region, where the attacks from the militant rebels have increased in frequency and damage. The pipeline from Iran has also witnessed sabotages.

Regionally, the Interconnector Turkey-Greece-Italy (ITGI) transportation project from the Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan to Italy has had positive fallout in Turkey’s relations with Greece. The initial agreement between the Turkish state pipeline company BOTAS and the Greek gas company DEPA led to the laying of the pipeline by the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Greek Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis in 2005 – a milestone in decades of distrust and hostility between the two nations. The pipeline is operational since 2007.

On the other hand, Turkey is entering into troubled waters in its quest for more pipeline options in the region. The BOTAS has already started building a large pipeline toward northern Iraq planning to import gas from the Iraqi Kurdistan. The project is bound to invoke opposition from the central Iraqi government in Baghdad. The Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Taner Yildaz has also expressed interest in playing a large role in importing and re-exporting Israel’s gas deposits from the Leviathan gas field. Implementation of the project will have negative fallouts for the Turkish regional policies.

The Qatar-Turkey agreement to build a pipeline originating in Qatar and moving through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria reaching Turkey has been perceived to be one of the major reasons for the uprising in Syria. A pliable regime in Syria would have been an absolute prerequisite in its implementation. The Turkey-Iraq Pipeline and the Arab Pipeline from Egypt have not been realized due to the political instability in the region. The gas imports from Iran have remained static in view of the sanctions on the country.

Beyond the region, Turkey suffers at times and benefits at others from the global scramble for a share in the gas resources. It has been a contested territory for rival pipeline proposals – the most interesting being the South Stream project of Russia and the Nabucco project of the West. The South Stream pipeline proposes to carry gas from the Russian Black Sea coast in Krasnodar Krai through an off-shore pipeline under the Black Sea to the Bulgarian landfall near Varna and a connecting on-shore pipeline from there to Greece, Italy and Austria.

In 2009, the pipeline was rerouted through the Turkish exclusive economic zone to avoid the Ukrainian exclusive economic zone as Russia and Ukraine fell out on the terms of the agreement. An ambitious project to deliver 63 bcm of gas annually, it is expected to start its commercial operation by the end of 2015.

The Nabucco, originally proposed in 2002, was to follow roughly the same route as the South Stream. A decade later, it was revised as Nabucco-West which would have been a shorter and a more modest version. The Nabucco-West would have been a commercially viable and logistically advantageous proposal but the risks of causing a gas glut in the market and of raising tensions with Russia doomed its prospects. In June this year, its fate was finally sealed when the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) was chosen as a route from the Shah Deniz II fields in Azerbaijan to Western Europe. The TAP will connect with the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) near the Turkey-Greece border in Kipoi, cross Greece, Albania and the Adriatic Sea before coming ashore in southern Italy.

Rotterdam is the undisputed leader as the hub for crude oil. It is one of the world’s largest ports with a huge rail, road, air and sea network. Handing the cargo, managing trans-shipment, operating refineries and petrochemical plants, the city has acquired the title of “Gateway to Europe”.

So, will Turkey be the hub for gas tomorrow like Rotterdam is the hub for oil today? Its ambition to emerge as a major conduit of gas to Europe suffers from an inherent limitation; the future growth in energy demand will be from Asia and not Europe.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India.

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/WillTurkeybethenewhubforgas_gdietl_06111
http://infognomonpolitics.blogspot.gr/2013/11/blog-post_679.html#.Un3z0ieKJXQ

Archaeologists & Historians To Investigate Vast Network of Mediterranean Ports

This is an aerial photo of port basin at Portus. Credit: University of Southampton

The University of Southampton has been awarded €2.49 million (£2.1 million) by the European Research Council to study a large network of Roman ports stretching from Turkey in the east, to Spain in the west.

Archaeologist Professor Simon Keay will lead the project, 'Roman Mediterranean Ports', to examine 31 ports in nine different countries. His team will examine the sites using a combination of geophysical surveys (including ground penetrating radar), data from satellite imagery, and the study of ancient texts.

Professor Keay is leading the project in very close collaboration with Ancient Historian Professor Pascal Arnaud, from the Université de Lyon La Lumière, who will be analysing key Greek and Latin texts and inscriptions to learn more about what they tell us about the character and capacity of ports and the connections between them, port officials and port communities. This will be the first time that both the archaeological and historical evidence will have been studied in an integrated manner.

Professor Keay comments: "We will explore the relationship between these 31 ports and look at how they integrated to form a crucial part of vast trading networks across the Roman Empire. They formed one of the world's most important trading systems, operating at a time when the Mediterranean was a unified region.

"By studying these networks, we aim to gather a wealth of knowledge about how they operated and why – also helping to set in context how trade was conducted in later historical periods and, indeed, today."

The Southampton team will be based at the Faculty of Humanities and work with project partners from across Europe at the Université de Lyon La Lumière, British School at Rome, the Centre Nationale de la Recherches Scientifique (CNRS) at Lyon and the German Archaeological Institute in Istanbul, as well with the Austrian Archaeological Institute, the Catalan Institute of Classical Archaeology, the Soprintendenza Archeologica di Roma and Napoli, the University of Cádiz and the University of Oxford.

Archaeologists will conduct fieldwork 'in situ' at eight of the 31 ports, surveying sites with the latest geophysical techniques (similar to underground scanning) at Ephesus, Pitane and Kane in Turkey; Gades and Tarraco in Spain; Portus and Puteoli in Italy and Utica in Tunisia. They will also use satellite imagery and existing archaeological data to study the remaining 23 ports in France, Egypt, Tunisia, Italy, Spain, Turkey, Libya, Israel and Greece. The team will look for structures which formed the port infrastructures, such as harbour basins, canals, warehouses and residential buildings.

Professor Arnaud and the historians in the team will be complementing this work by studying the vocabulary of harbours and moorings, the management of harbours and the jobs involved in everyday harbour life. They will try to better understand which authorities managed the harbours, and the form that their control took. Harbours were places where most maritime-based trade took place - archaeology alone is of little use in understanding the complexity of harbour procedures, operations, jobs and networks. They will study networks of people and groups and try to gather and analyse a wide range of documents (literary texts, jurisprudence, papyri, public and private inscriptions, graffiti and labels attached to merchandise) to improve our understanding of what exactly happened in harbours of different sizes, and provide the archaeologists with some keys for understanding the use of space within Roman ports. They will edit a sourcebook of ancient harbours and contribute to a database of harbours.

The research, lasting five years, will mainly concentrate on the first two centuries AD and consider the layout, activities, hierarchies and commercial and social connections made between Roman ports. It is hoped that much of the study will eventually be presented in a virtual environment online, including computer visualisations by the University of Southampton's Archaeological Computing Research Group (led by Dr Graeme Earl) and interactive elements, to help users explore the findings.

'Roman Mediterranean Ports' builds on 15 years of work by Professor Simon Keay at the archaeological site of Portus in Italy, the port of Imperial Rome. He comments: "Portus was Rome's only real trade gateway to the Mediterranean for most of the Imperial period and vital to the survival of the Empire. Over many years excavating and studying Portus, I have learned an enormous amount about its central role in the Roman Empire and this latest project will allow me to extend our knowledge even further to consider the broader commercial networks in the Mediterranean It will also greatly benefit from the many years of experience by Professor Arnaud in the field of Roman geography, navigation, ports and traders."

This European Research Council Advanced Grant award comes as the University of Southampton establishes the Southampton Marine and Maritime Institute – a unique, world-leading institute for marine and maritime innovation, education and expertise, of which Archaeology at Southampton plays a key role.

Notes:

• 1) Full list of ports examined in the project: Alexandria (Egypt), Acholla (Tunisia), Aquileia (Italy), Arelate (Arles), Candarli (Turkey), Carthage (Tunisia), Carthago-Nova (Spain), Caesarea Maritima (Israel), Centumcellae (Italy), Cumae (Italy), Elaia (Turkey), Ephesus (Turkey), Forum Iulii (France), Gades (Spain), Hispalis (Seville), Kane (Turkey), Leptiminus (Tunisia), Lepcis Magna (Libya), Massallia (France), Narbo (Narbonne), Neapolis (Italy), Piraeus (Greece), Pitane (Turkey), Portus (Fiumicino), Puteoli (Italy), Sullecthum (Tunisia), Thapsus (Tunsia), Tarraco (Spain), Toulon (France), Utica (Tunisia) and the Vada Volterrana (Italy).
• 2) For any interviews with Professor Simon Keay, please contact Glenn Harris, Media Relations, University of Southampton Tel: 023 8059 3212 email: G.Haris@soton.ac.uk
• 3) For more information about Archaeology at Southampton visit: http://www.southampton.ac.uk/archaeology
• 4) The University of Southampton is a leading UK teaching and research institution with a global reputation for leading-edge research and scholarship across a wide range of subjects in engineering, science, social sciences, health and humanities.
• 5) For more details about the European Research Council visit: http://erc.europa.eu
• 6) For further information about the University of Southampton's research at Portus visit: http://www.portusproject.org

"Federation" Between Greece, Cyprus and Israel?

(HellenicAntidote) - Last week Greece’s PM Antonis Samaras made a high-profile visit to Israel for an inter-governmental meeting where the burgeoning relations between Greece and Israel were evaluated (see video above). In light of these developments, Giorgios Malouchos, writing in To Vima, called for a federation between Greece, Israel and Cyprus. The piece, which I’ve translated into English below (read original article in Greek here), is a little far fetched and here are some problems with Malouchos’ vision that immediately struck me.

First, what exactly what does Malouchos mean by a ‘federation’? Surely, he doesn’t mean a political union.

Second, Syriza, which has a chance of forming a government in Greece in the near future, trapped by its anti-Zionism and fetishisation of the Palestinian cause, is instinctively hostile to Israel, meaning Israel must harbour serious doubts as to the long-term prospects of Greece being a reliable partner.

Third, Turkey, concerned by developments in the Eastern Mediterranean – not only the budding Greece-Israel-Cyprus axis but also the prospects of Greece-Egypt-Cyprus or even a Greece-Egypt-Israel-Cyprus axis – is making noise about reaching a Cyprus settlement as soon as possible. Of course, what Turkey means by a Cyprus settlement is something akin to the Annan plan, which would allow the Turkish Cypriots to use the powers they would acquire in a federated Cyprus to project Turkey’s interests, for example by vetoing any Cypriot participation in alliances involving Israel and/or Egypt.

A federation between Greece, Cyprus and Israel
By Giorgios Malouchos

Even if it’s been greatly delayed, Greek policy shows that it has at last realised the obvious: that relations between Greece and Israel shouldn’t only become closer as quickly as possible but should reach the point of an alliance; an alliance, indeed, that goes beyond deep co-operation and embraces the logic of a confederation or, why not, a federation.

A Mediterranean alliance between Greece, Cyprus and Israel will change everything for all concerned. Nothing divides the three countries. There exist no conflicts or rivalries. In fact, much unites them, with each country able to add something to the other and, together, to the whole.

A federation will allow the three states to jointly secure the exploitation of the massive hydrocarbon reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean. Thus, while Israel, arguably, has the best airforce in the world, its navy is less adequate. Greece’s navy, on the other hand, has the potential to become the most powerful in the region.

Also, Israel lacks strategic depth, something which Cyprus and Greece can offer it.

The strategic unification of an area that stretches from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Adriatic, will bring unprecedented developments with wide ramifications.

Furthermore, the Jewish and Greek diasporas, if they work in a deep and systematic way in pursuit of common goals, will emerge as key players in shaping American policy in the region.

At the same time, Greece, a member of NATO and the EU, would be able to extend its support to Israel in these forums.

Naturally, apart from an alliance in the energy field, there exists enormous potential for wider economic co-operation.

Grand politics today mean exactly this: will Greece dare to go down new roads that lead to new possibilities? Will Greece make a leap forward, act dynamically, change the agenda, and assert its capabilities? The creation of this triple alliance – perhaps even this federation – will contribute like nothing else to a reinvigorated Greece.

Do we dare, or will we remain satisfied with words and half-measures?

*Editor's Note - The introduction of the word "federation" raises some concerns. Alliance is one thing, and we here at HellasFrappe are in favor of this alliance, but the introduction and use of the word "Federation" totally, and without a doubt, implies many, many other things.

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